The points needed for West Brom, Hull City, and Norwich City to reach Championship play-offs

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The 2023/24 Championship has a quarter of the way to go and West Brom are strongly in the mix for a play-off spot.

West Brom must win six of their remaining 12 games if they are to secure a Championship play-off spot according to our calculations. 

The Baggies are currently fifth in the Championship and have an upcoming game against promotion rivals Coventry City on Friday. Carlos Corberan’s side are fifth but have a few teams breathing down their necks with Norwich City four points off of them. A victory would go a long way towards creating further distance between themselves and the chasing pack with Coventry currently five points behind. 

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History is a good way of looking at what is needed though some seasons are massively different from others and the leagues are a slight bit more competitive. The league right now has Leicester City, Leeds United, Southampton, and Ipswich Town running away with things leaving their two play-off places for teams to battle it out. 

Over the last ten seasons teams have needed 74 points or more to guarantee themselves a play-off spot. West Brom currently has 56 and so to achieve that 74-point mark they’d need to win half of their remaining matches to confirm their involvement in the end-of-season showpiece. 

The lowest points tally over the last decade to get into the top six was 69 points which Sunderland got last season. Sunderland finished ahead of Blackburn Rovers on the virtue of goal difference. Fulham recorded the highest amount of points for a sixth-placed side in the 2016/17 season and finished five points higher than seventh-placed Leeds United.

In the last decade, there have been three times (2023, 2020 and 2015) where a side has finished sixth and ahead of seventh on the virtue of goal difference. West Brom last won promotion to the Premier League by finishing second but since their relegation in 2021 they’ve finished tenth and ninth. They were involved in the 2018/19 play-offs and finished fourth, losing to Aston Villa who would go on to win promotion.

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The best position to finish in the play-offs if you want to get promoted is either fourth or fifth. Four teams have been promoted from third and four from fourth with two in fifth. Sixth has not yielded any play-off winners in the last decade.

Championship play-off final positions

2021/22: 3rd. Huddersfield Town - 82 points (+17 GD). 4th: Nottingham Forest (P) - 80 points (+33 GD). 5th: Sheffield United - 75 points (+18 GD). 6th: Luton Town - 75 points (+8 GD). Gap between sixth and seventh: Five points. 

2020/21: 3rd: Brentford (P) - 87 points (+37 GD). 4th: Swansea City - 80 points (+17 GD). 5th: Barnsley - 78 points (+8 GD). 6th: Bournemouth - 77 points (+27 GD). Gap between sixth and seventh: Seven points.

2019/20: 3rd: Brentford - 81 points (+42 GD). 4th: Fulham (P) - 81 points (+16 GD). 5th: Cardiff City - 73 points (+10 GD). 6th: Swansea City - 70 points (+9 GD). Gap between sixth and seventh: +1 GD. 

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2018/19: 3rd: Leeds United - 83 points (+23 GD). 4th: West Brom - 80 points (+25 GD). 5th: Aston Villa (P) - 76 points (+21 GD). 6th: Derby County - 74 points (+15 GD). Gap between sixth and seventh: One point.

2017/18 - 3rd. Fulham (P) 88 points (+33 GD). 4th. Aston Villa - 83 points (+30 GD). 5th: 76 points (+22 GD). 6th: Derby County - 75 points (+22 GD). Gap between sixth and seventh: Two points. 

2016/17 - 3rd. Reading - 85 points (+4 GD). 4th: Sheffield Wednesday - 81 points (+15 GD). 5th. Huddersfield Town (P) - 81 points (-2 GD). 6th: Fulham - 80 points (+28 GD). Gap betwen sixth and seventh: Five points. 

2015/16 - 3rd. Brighton & Hove Albion - 89 points (+30 GD). 4th: Hull City (P) - 83 points (+34 GD). 5th. Derby County - 78 points (+23 GD). 6th: Sheffield Wednesday - 74 points (+21 GD). Gap between sixth and seventh: Five points. 

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2014/15 - 3rd. Norwich City (P) - 86 points (+40 GD).  4th. Middlesbrough - 85 points (+31 GD) 5th: Brentford - 78 points (+19 GD). 6th: Ipswich Town - 78 points (+18 GD). Gap between sixth and seventh: +4 GD. 

2013/14 3rd. Derby County - 85 points (+32 GD). 4th: QPR (P) - 80 points (+16 GD). 5th: Wigan Athletic - 73 points (+13 GD). 6th: Brighton - 72 points (+15 GD). Gap between sixth and seventh: One point.

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