Aston Villa, Chelsea and Forest's Champions League spot fate predicted in new final PL table forecast
Aston Villa’s Champions League fate has been predicted by data experts Opta following their win over Chelsea.
A 2-1 win over Chelsea on Saturday evening has given Aston Villa’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League again a timely boost – but what are the odds that Unai Emery’s side make it back to Europe’s top table for a second consecutive season? Data experts Opta have the answer.
Villa’s deadline day signings combined to help the team to overturn an early deficit over the weekend, and the arrival of Marco Asensio and a seemingly revitalised Marcus Rashford, who respectively scored and assisted both goals, surely won’t do Villa’s chances of making the top four any harm. Opta, however, still don’t think that their odds are all that good.
Will Aston Villa qualify for the Champions League?
Opta’s latest predicted Premier League table has Villa finishing down in eighth place, below Chelsea and Bournemouth – and should that prove to be correct, then Emery’s men could miss out on European qualification altogether.
Opta predict that Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest will make the top four, with Newcastle finishing fifth. According to their data model, Villa will most likely be forced to settle for mid-table.
Overall, Opta rate Villa’s chances of making the top four at just 3.24%, with their odds on qualifying for any European competition through the league at a mere 7.63% - about a one in thirteen chance.
There is good news, however, because the Premier League is in pole position to get a fifth Champions League place next season, with English clubs performing better than their peers in other countries in continental competitions.
The two countries who finish with the highest UEFA club co-efficient in this year’s Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League will be awarded an extra qualification spot, and as it stands England are in a very strong position with the Premier League likely to be handed an extra entry into Europe’s biggest competition, probably alongside Spain’s La Liga.
Should that happen, then the top five would earn Champions League qualification while eighth place would go through to the Europa League – meaning that according to Opta’s predicted table, the Villans remain in good shape top get at least some continental competition next season.
Win over Chelsea a big step but away form still an issue
Defeat to Chelsea at Villa Park on Saturday would have represented a huge blow to Villa’s chances of making the top four – or indeed five – and while they are currently in eighth place they are now just two points off of Manchester City and Newcastle, who are fourth and fifth respectively.
For Villa to take advantage of the platform provided by Rashford and Asensio’s good work on Saturday, however, they will need to dramatically improve their away form. Emery’s side have picked up just four wins from 12 matches on the road and have three more away fixtures than home games remaining.
The first of those away matches comes at Selhurst Park on Tuesday evening, a game which will be followed by an FA Cup fifth-round tie against Cardiff City and then the first leg of the Champions League last 16 tie with Club Brugge. Success in either competition could also offer the Villans a route into Europe next season if their league form declines.
In other news, Emery has offered a promising update on the injury status of one of Villa’s recent absentees and the club have been linked with a surprise summer bid for a Chelsea forward.