Aston Villa’s dismal start to the 2025/26 season continued with a disappointing 1-1 draw against newly-promoted Sunderland at the Stadium of Light.
Unai Emery’s side were once again lacklustre in the final third of the pitch and only managed two shots on target throughout the entire 90 minutes despite having a man advantage for two thirds of the contest Reinildo Mandava’s red card in the 33rd minute. Villa scored their first league goal of the season through Matty Cash in the 67th minute but surrendered their advantage just seven minutes later when Wilson Isidor volleyed in a goal from close distance.
Aston Villa remain in the bottom three with a record of three draws and two defeats from their opening five matches. They sit narrowly ahead of West Ham and basement side Wolves, who are now the only team in the league without a single point. It’s a far cry from where Villa, who competed in a Champions League quarter-final just six months ago, would expect to be at this stage of the season. But can they turn it around under Emery or are they likely to continue struggling? Here we take a look at Opta’s supercomputer to see how the latest round of fixtures influenced its final forecast.

5. Crystal Palace - 60 points
Crystal Palace have been backed by the data experts to secure their highest ever league finish of the Premier League era. The FA Cup holders have started well, picking up nine points from five matches but are yet to play their first match in the Europa Conference. | Getty Images

6. Newcastle United - 57 points
Newcastle United are expected to qualify for Europe for the third time in four years. However, they could be at risk of missing out on Champions League qualification after a fairly slow start. | Getty Images

7. Tottenham Hotspur - 57 points
Tottenham Hotspur are expected to climb 10 places from last season but are expected to miss out on Champions League qualification. They've made a bright start, picking up 10 points from five matches so far under Thomas Frank. | Getty Images

8. Bournemouth - 56 points
Bournemouth have sold a number of key stars over the summer but have started well without them. They are expected to compete for Europe but could just fall short this term. | Getty Images


