Aston Villa’s dismal start to the 2025/26 season continued with a disappointing 1-1 draw against newly-promoted Sunderland at the Stadium of Light.
Unai Emery’s side were once again lacklustre in the final third of the pitch and only managed two shots on target throughout the entire 90 minutes despite having a man advantage for two thirds of the contest Reinildo Mandava’s red card in the 33rd minute. Villa scored their first league goal of the season through Matty Cash in the 67th minute but surrendered their advantage just seven minutes later when Wilson Isidor volleyed in a goal from close distance.
Aston Villa remain in the bottom three with a record of three draws and two defeats from their opening five matches. They sit narrowly ahead of West Ham and basement side Wolves, who are now the only team in the league without a single point. It’s a far cry from where Villa, who competed in a Champions League quarter-final just six months ago, would expect to be at this stage of the season. But can they turn it around under Emery or are they likely to continue struggling? Here we take a look at Opta’s supercomputer to see how the latest round of fixtures influenced its final forecast.

1. Liverpool - 81 points
Liverpool are expected to defend their league title for the first time in 42 years. They have won all five matches this season and have already established a five point gap over Arsenal at the top of the table at this early stage. | Liverpool FC via Getty Images

2. Arsenal - 74 points
Arsenal are expected to finish runners-up for the fourth season in a row. They've started the season well and have added quality but crucially have missed out on points against Liverpool and Manchester City in the early weeks. | Getty Images

3. Manchester City - 67 points
Manchester City won four consecutive titles between 2020 and 2024 but are expected to have to settle for bronze for the second year in a row. They have won just two of their opening five games so far and are yet to find a consistent winning formula this term. | Getty Images

4. Chelsea - 62 points
Chelsea are expected to finish fourth for the second consecutive season. The Club World Cup winners have picked up eight points from their opening five games so far. | Getty Images
