The business end of the 2024/25 Championship season has arrived and there’s still so much to fight for, especially in the race for play-off football.
Top two sides Leeds United and Burnley look in a very strong position to clinch automatic promotion as they have now stretched a five-point gap to nearest chasers Sheffield United, who have lost their last three matches.
Sunderland, effectively guaranteed to finish in fourth, will use the final fixtures to prepare for the play-offs, but it’s unclear who will join them in the three other qualification spots.
West Bromwich Albion had been in fifth and sixth for months but have now dropped down to seventh following a disappointing run. A narrow 2-1 win over Watford at the weekend has restored faith, though, with fifth-placed Bristol City and sixth-placed Coventry City now looking nervously over their shoulders.
Then there are Middlesbrough and Millwall, level on points with West Brom but behind on goal difference. All five teams will be confident they can secure the final play-off positions, but there’s only space for two. The fight could go down right to the wire.
Down the other end of the table, the relegated sides are yet to be decided. Plymouth Argyle remain at the foot of the standings but are now just three points adrift from safety following a huge 2-1 win over Sheffield United. Just like Plymouth, Luton Town are on 40 points. Cardiff City are in 22nd on 42 points, while Derby County (43), Hull City (44) and Portsmouth (46) are narrowly above the drop zone.
How could the final standings look, then? Well, with four games to go for most, there’s still time for some significant changes. The data experts at Opta Analyst have been crunching the numbers, offering their predictions for all 24 positions.
21. 5th: Coventry City
Frank Lampard has done an exceptional job to get the Sky Blues into play-off contention and it looks like they’ll achieve their goal. Expected points: 69.78, chance of play-offs: 67.22%. | Getty Images
22. 4th: Sunderland
The Black Cats have known for a while where they are likely to finish. A great season but not quite enough to compete with the leading pack. Expected points: 82.63, chance of play-offs: 100%. | Getty Images
23. 3rd: Sheffield United
Rueing their recent run of three successive defeats, the Blades will be targeting a triumph in the play-offs. Expected points: 89.59, chance of title: 0.72%, chance of automatic promotion: 7.44%, chance of play-offs: 92.56%. | Getty Images
24. 2nd: Burnley
Set to narrowly miss out on the crown, Burnley are at least expected to be promoted to the Premier League. Expected points: 95.61, chance of title: 35.1%, chance of automatic promotion: 93.9%. | Getty Images