The business end of the 2024/25 Championship season has arrived and there’s still so much to fight for, especially in the race for play-off football.
Top two sides Leeds United and Burnley look in a very strong position to clinch automatic promotion as they have now stretched a five-point gap to nearest chasers Sheffield United, who have lost their last three matches.
Sunderland, effectively guaranteed to finish in fourth, will use the final fixtures to prepare for the play-offs, but it’s unclear who will join them in the three other qualification spots.
West Bromwich Albion had been in fifth and sixth for months but have now dropped down to seventh following a disappointing run. A narrow 2-1 win over Watford at the weekend has restored faith, though, with fifth-placed Bristol City and sixth-placed Coventry City now looking nervously over their shoulders.
Then there are Middlesbrough and Millwall, level on points with West Brom but behind on goal difference. All five teams will be confident they can secure the final play-off positions, but there’s only space for two. The fight could go down right to the wire.
Down the other end of the table, the relegated sides are yet to be decided. Plymouth Argyle remain at the foot of the standings but are now just three points adrift from safety following a huge 2-1 win over Sheffield United. Just like Plymouth, Luton Town are on 40 points. Cardiff City are in 22nd on 42 points, while Derby County (43), Hull City (44) and Portsmouth (46) are narrowly above the drop zone.
How could the final standings look, then? Well, with four games to go for most, there’s still time for some significant changes. The data experts at Opta Analyst have been crunching the numbers, offering their predictions for all 24 positions.
17. 9th: Millwall
Still in with a narrow shot but unlikely to make up enough ground, Millwall can hold their heads high. Expected points: 65.45, chance of play-offs: 8.06%. | Getty Images
18. 8th: Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough are predicted to finish outside the play-offs after previously showing signs they should have enough. Expected points: 66.04, chance of play-offs: 21.22%. | Getty Images
19. 7th: West Bromwich Albion
Tony Mowbray is expected to fall short, according to Opta, with a disappointing end to the season resulting in another year’s wait for promotion. Expected points: 66.47, chance of play-offs: 28.72%. | Getty Images
20. 6th: Bristol City
Just like Coventry, Bristol have done incredibly well to get into this position and now they’re in the driving seat to keep it. Expected points: 69.76, chance of play-offs: 74.4%. | Getty Images