Where Aston Villa are likely to be seeded should they qualify for Europa League and possible opponents

Aston Villa remain locked in a battle for European football, and here we run you through where the Midlands club might be seeded should they reach the Europa League.

Villa have achieved a sensational turnaround since the arrival of Unai Emery, surging up the Premier League table. Emery’s men currently sit sixth in the table, but they are just one point above Liverpool, who have a game in-hand to play. It’s going to be a scramble for a Europa League spot, with some tough fixtures remaining for the Lions.

With Villa on course to land a European spot, we have taken a look to see where they may be seeded should they land Europa League football.

How Europa League seeding works

Europa League group stage seedings work solely on coefficient rankings. With no major league champions included in the competition, seedings are used to determine the draw pots.

There are four draw pots in all, with the best-seeded teams in pot one and the lowest-seeded teams in pot four. Each group is made up of one team from each pot. That means teams from the same pot cannot face each other, and as usual, nor can teams from the same country.

The seedings are calculated by essentially taking the coefficient points of each team, putting them in order and then splitting the list into four pots.

It’s worth noting that the same process is used for the Europa Conference League.

What are coefficient points?

Coefficient points are calculated based on how clubs have performed across UEFA competitions in the last five seasons. Those competitions include the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League.

Essentially, clubs are awared points for each of their results across those competitions, and these are added up to make a running total over the previous five seasons. We won’t go through the full points system, but for example, a group stage win in the Champions League is worth two points, while there are extra points for reaching further rounds. The system is very similar for the Europa League, while clubs in the Conference League earn a little less per win. There are also bonus points handed out for progressing through the group stage.

Given the totals are accumulated over five years, clubs with no experience in Europe during that time frame are limited in the number of coefficient points they have, but that doesn’t mean teams like Villa have zero points.

If a club’s coefficient points total is lower than the sum of 20% of a country’s coefficient points, they will be given the total of the latter.

Where are Villa likely to end up?

Villa have no coefficient points, given they have not been in European competition during the last five years.

They do, however, belong to the nation with the best coefficient ranking, meaning they get a 20% slice of the best pie. That total - likely to be somewhere between 20 and 25 - will not be enough to get them into pot one should they qualify, though.

There are a large number of clubs well above that points total, with the likes of Sporting CP, Feyenoord, Basel, Braga, PSV, Copenhagen, Olympiacos, Real Betis and others all above 35 points. Of course, not all of those teams will be in the Europa League next season, so it will depend on who qualifies, but there are 68 teams in Europe with 25 or more points.

A big slice of those will be in the Champions League, but with eight teams in the Europa League’s pot one, there are likely to be eight teams or more with 25 points or more come the start of next season’s competition. Villa would have a decent chance of getting into pot two in the Europa League - or pot three at worst - while they would likely be in pot one for the Conference League should they end up in that competition.