Premier League expected points table: Where Aston Villa, Wolves, Leeds, Newcastle & West Ham sit - gallery
The updated ‘Expected Points’ table for the Premier League, based on xG – including some shocks for Brighton, Chelsea, Wolves, Brentford and West Ham.
As the World Cup reaches the knockout stages over in Qatar, there has now been plenty of time for the dust to settle on the opening 15 matches of the Premier League season back at home. English top flight action returns on Boxing Day, December 26, meaning the current league standings is how things will look at Christmas.
Some teams have exceeded expectations, whereas others have fallen well below the standards set at the start of the campaign. West Midlands clubs Aston Villa and Wolverhampton Wanderers, for instance, both decided to change their managers due to poor performances and a disappointing start to the season.
Arsenal have been a real surprise package as they are top of the table by a rather extraordinary five-point margin. Manchester City sit in second, whereas Newcastle United have been spectacular under manager Eddie Howe, who has guided the Magpies to third.
Some teams have often been left frustrated as the quality of performances has at times not been reflected in final scores, even with the ‘expected goals’ figure in their favour. For those who don’t know what that means, expected goals - or xG - is a metric designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal.
Quite often, teams will accumulate a high xG after creating countless opportunities but end up not scoring. Brighton & Hove Albion, for example, recorded a 1.98-0.16 expected goals win over Nottingham Forest in October, but the final result was in fact a 0-0 draw.
One Twitter account dedicated to expected goals, @xGPhilosophy, has tallied up what results should have been throughout the Premier League season so far based on the metric. From that, it has worked out a new league table with ‘expected points’, otherwise known as the ‘justice table’.
With those tied, those who have seen the greater increase will be placed higher. Here’s how the table looks - with some big surprises, especially in the bottom half.