Stats experts reveal Birmingham City and Wrexham's exact chances of promotion after midweek struggles

What are Birmingham City’s chances of back-to-back promotions amid their latest run of form?

Birmingham City’s form has taken a significant dip over recent weeks as their return to the Championship is proving to be a tough competition. With clubs battling for their shot at Premier League football, the promotion statistics are constantly changing.

Chris Davies looks on during a football match | Getty Images

placeholder image — Chris Davies looks on during a football match | Getty Images

The Blues returned to England’s second tier at the first time of asking, with a stunning 111-point title win and automatic promotion last season.

They recorded just three defeats throughout the entire League One campaign, but with as many on the board now from their opening seven Championship games, Birmingham City are feeling the increase in quality from the opposition.

The Blues have picked up just one win from their last five Championship games. Their latest 2-2 draw against Sheffield Wednesday has impacted how the stat experts view their chances of promotion this season.

Opta’s latest season forecast does not spell the best news for Birmingham and their hopes of back-to-back promotion. Wrexham are in a similar situation, with their historic promotion run looking likely to come to a halt.

Birmingham City promotion chances this season

According to Opta’s latest Supercomputer predictions, Birmingham City have been forecast to finish the season with 61.50 points, giving them just a 3.8 percent chance of earning an automatic promotion spot.

The Blues are currently 12th in the Championship table with 11 points on the board. The battle for promotion is already looking to be a tight one, as just eight points separate leaders Middlesbrough from Southampton down in 14th.

Chris Davies’ side have been given a more generous chance at reaching the play-offs, though. The Blues are in with a 14.16 percent likelihood of finishing in the top six. Right now, the third to sixth place spots are being directly contested by 12 teams who are all within three points of each other.

Wrexham are down in 15th on nine points, with a similar run to Birmingham with just one win from their last five games. The Reds’ chances are significantly less, with a 2.34 percent likelihood of automatic promotion and a 9.22 percent chance of qualifying for the play-offs.

Opta predicts Championship promotion chances

Here is the full final predicted table by Opta, based on what we’ve seen in the Championship so far. We have ranked the standings based on automatic promotion probability (the play-off percent stat is followed in brackets).