Aston Villa soared into the Premier League top half for the first time under Unai Emery when they beat Chelsea on Saturday, closing the gap to those currently occupying the European qualification spots. The Villans have played more games than others around them but are now right in the mix.
Sixth-placed Brighton & Hove Albion (43) and seventh-placed Brentford (also 43) are just two points ahead of Villa (41), with Liverpool (42) merely one above. Meanwhile, Fulham (39) and Chelsea (38) are still in with a chance of securing European football next season.
Having an extra team in the fight makes it all the more exciting for neutrals watching along, but even tenser for those supporting any of the clubs involved. Who, then, is looking likeliest to finish in the top seven as it stands? Here’s an updated look at the predicted final standings from data experts FiveThirtyEight.
1. Data experts predict the Premier League race for Europe
Unai Emery is a serial winner of the Europa League, but will Villa qualify for the competition?
2. 10th: Chelsea
Predicted total: 52 points. Goal difference: -1. Qualify for UCL chance: less than 1%.
3. 9th: Aston Villa
Predicted total: 54 points. Goal difference: -3. Qualify for UCL chance: less than 1%.
4. 8th: Brentford
Predicted total: 56 points. Goal difference: +7. Qualify for UCL chance: 2%.