How Aston Villa can qualify for Champions League - permutations & how many Premier League clubs can get Europe

Unai Emery still carries the belief that Aston Villa can qualify for next season’s Champions League, but it won’t be easy as four other teams are squabbling for the final three spots.

Due to England securing first place in the UEFA coefficients rankings, the top five Premier League finishers will earn qualification for Europe’s elite competition. That feat, confirmed on April 10 when Arsenal beat Real Madrid at the Emirates Stadium, came as a big boost for Villa and other sides on the fringes of the top four as another route into the Champions League opened up.

So then, with Villa currently seventh in the Premier League standings with three games to go, how can they see off the competition to secure Champions League football for a second successive season? Birmingham World has been crunching the numbers to work out all the possible permutations.

The perfect outcome

It’s unlikely every domino will fall into place exactly as Villa desire, but there’s one best-case scenario that would make the route to the Champions League the simplest.

Villa are boosted by the fact that several of the other contenders must play one another before the end of the season, meaning points will be taken away from at least one team on each occasion. The first meeting is between Newcastle and Chelsea at St. James’ Park this weekend; if they draw, it would be a huge helping hand for Villa.

Newcastle drawing to Chelsea and then losing away at Arsenal at the Emirates in the penultimate game of the season would really open things up for Villa. If those results happen and Villa were to win all three of their remaining fixtures, Villa will be guaranteed to finish at least one point ahead of Newcastle, pushing one team out of the race.

One more result would then be required to secure a top-five finish, and that would be Forest failing to beat Chelsea on the final day, in another meeting between two contenders. That’s certainly feasible, even with Forest having the benefit of the home advantage.

The worst outcome

The worst-case scenario, quite obviously, would be Villa failing to win their last three matches. But there’s also a situation where Villa claim maximum points and still fail to finish in the top five. If Chelsea and Forest win their next two games and Newcastle beat Arsenal in the penultimate game, Villa will be behind all three teams heading into the final day, losing out to Newcastle on goal difference.

As a result, even if Villa beat Manchester United at Old Trafford, Emery’s men will be relying on Forest failing to beat Chelsea and Everton avoiding defeat against Newcastle. That could be tricky, too, as Chelsea may have no motivation at that stage if they’ve already secured their place in the top five.

What if Chelsea beat Newcastle?

In the assumption that Forest win their next two games against Leicester City and West Ham United, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side would be on 67 points. Chelsea, meanwhile, could get to 70 points and become unreachable for Villa if they beat Newcastle next weekend and then follow it up against Man Utd the following week.

In this scenario, if Newcastle also fail to beat Arsenal, Villa would be above them on the final day, but would still need to finish ahead of Forest. Thus, Villa would need to beat Manchester United and hope Forest fail to beat Chelsea on the final day. It’s confusing, we know.

But what if Newcastle beat Chelsea?

Switching around the result at St. James’ Park, the Magpies winning against Chelsea and then failing to beat Arsenal could set up a mega final day, as long as Villa and Forest both win their next two games.

Depending on their result in north London, Newcastle could be on 66 or 67 points and Villa would be on 66, albeit with an inferior goal difference. As Chelsea will probably beat Man Utd on the penultimate weekend and Newcastle are likely to see off Everton on the final day, it’s probably better that Chelsea beat Newcastle as Eddie Howe’s side would then fall below Villa if they also fail to win against Arsenal.

Forest failing would aid Villa’s chances

The good news is that if Villa win all three of their remaining games and Forest fail to win their next two, Villa would be guaranteed to finish above them. It still wouldn’t guarantee Champions League football, though, as Chelsea and Newcastle would need six points each out of nine to finish in the top five.

In this situation of Forest winning just one of their final three games, Villa would be desperate for Arsenal to take points off Newcastle and for Forest to avoid a defeat to Chelsea on the final day. That would be enough for fifth.

What if Man City tumble away?

It’s unexpected, but Man City could still fall down the order and miss out on the Champions League themselves. The likelihood is Pep Guardiola’s team will qualify as they need six more points out of the last nine, but it’s not guaranteed.

A win against Southampton next up is bound to happen, meaning City would need to beat either Bournemouth or Fulham in the final two. Neither of those are easy games, however, with both the Cherries and the Cottagers fighting with Brighton & Hove Albion and Brentford for possible Europa Conference League qualification.

If City beat Southampton but fail to win against Bournemouth, a point at Fulham would be enough to secure their place. A defeat at Craven Cottage could open the door, though. Villa winning three out of three and City earning just four points out of nine would be enough for Emery’s men to leapfrog the Cityzens.

How many Premier League clubs can qualify for Europe?

There is a chance that European competitions will feature as many as 10 English clubs next season. That would be a record for a single campaign, enabled by the introduction of the Europa Conference League several years ago, the recent expansion of the competitions Here is a scenario where this could happen:

- Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Man City finish in the top five and qualify for the Champions League

- Aston Villa or Brighton finish sixth and qualify for the Europa League- Chelsea finish outside the top six and qualify for the Europa League by winning this season’s Conference League

- Bournemouth finish seventh and take the Conference League place passed down by EFL Cup winners Newcastle

- Crystal Palace finish outside the top eight and qualify for the Europa League by winning this season’s FA Cup

- Manchester United or Spurs finish outside the top 10 and qualify for the Champions League by winning this season’s Europa League

Such an improbable outcome would mean six English clubs playing in next year’s Champions League, three in the Europa League, and one in the Conference League.

The domestic situation of Man Utd and Spurs – who sit 15th and 16th respectively – means lifting the Europa League trophy is now their only means of retaining European football next year. They could meet in the final in Bilbao on 21 May, with the victors receiving a place in the 2025/26 Champions League.

What are the remaining Premier League fixtures?

Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams in the race for Europe in full:

• Arsenal: LIV (A); NEW (H); SOU (A)
• Man City: SOU (A); BOU (H); FUL (A)
• Newcastle: CHE (H); ARS (A); EVE (H)
• Chelsea: NEW (A); MUN (H); NFO (A)
• Forest: LEI (H); WHU (A); CHE (H)
• Aston Villa: BOU (A); TOT (H); MUN (A)
• Bournemouth: AVL (H); MCI (A); LEI (H)
• Brentford: IPS (A); FUL (H); WOL (A)
• Brighton: WOL (A); LIV (H); TOT (A)
• Fulham: EVE (H); BRE (A); MCI (H)
• Crystal Palace: TOT (A); WOL (H); LIV (A)