Aston Villa in the Champions League? Major shake-up makes European dream more likely

Just three years ago Aston Villa were fighting for their lives in a Premier League relegation scrap but now, under the Unai Emery revolution, the club is vying for back-to-back seasons of European qualification.

The Villains made it into the Europa Conference League this season thanks to last term's strong league campaign and the added fixtures haven't impacted form with five wins in the opening eight placing the side in fifth place. There's a long journey ahead with Brighton, Newcastle United, Manchester United, Chelsea and West Ham no doubt eyeing up Aston Villa's current lofty position but a fifth-place finish could come with huge news for the Midlands club.

It’s poignant to note upcoming changes to Champions League qualification with the Premier League likely to get the chance to send an extra team to the group stage next term. That will all depend on the leagues across the continent with the best ‘coefficient’.

Football supporters will be familiar with that term from how the competition’s group stage pots are worked out and if the Premier League is classed in the top two leagues across Europe, then an extra spot will be granted. This would then go to the team that finishes fifth in the Premier League.

That head-turning news isn’t guaranteed, but only once in the last seven seasons has the Premier League failed to be classed in the top two European leagues. That was in 2019/20 when La Liga and Bundesliga took the crown. Here’s how it’s panned out in recent times.

• 2016-17: Bundesliga and Premier League
• 2017-18: Premier League and La Liga
• 2018-19: Premier League and La Liga
• 2019-20: La Liga and Bundesliga
• 2020-21: Premier League and La Liga
• 2021-22: Premier League and Eredivisie
• 2022-23: Premier League and Serie A

There is a slight complication the Premier League will have to contend with to make its way into the Champions League’s top two leagues this season. The top flight has eight clubs in Europe this season after West Ham won the Europa Conference League and didn’t qualify for Europe domestically.

That large number of teams means that every club’s win in Europe is worth slightly less to the coefficient score, as it’s an average of eight clubs rather than seven. The last time the Premier League had eight sides in Europe was 2015/16 and it only finished third in the coefficient ranking - although that year Southampton and West Ham failed to make it through the qualifying rounds whereas this year all sides have progressed to the group stages.

The Premier League will likely find out its fate as results begin to play out in March but it could go right down to the wire. A gang of top flight clubs will be watching with eagle eyes as Newcastle United, Brighton, Aston Villa, West Ham, Manchester United and Chelsea all look destined to fight over European spots.