Reform UK’s conference opens in Birmingham today. Mark Andrews asks whether its recent challenges are just bumps along the road to power - or do they mark the start of a decline in the party’s’ fortunes?

Last time Nigel Farage strode out onto the stage of Birmingham’s National Exhibition Centre, the Reform UK leader was engulfed in flames - literally.

While Labour delegates sing the Red Flag, and the Tories belt out Land of Hope and Glory, the Reform leader exited the stage in a show of pyrotechnics that many rock stars would have been proud of.

As he returns to the West Midlands for Reform’s annual conference today (Friday), Mr Farage’s immediate priority will be to ensure that his party’s chances of forming the next government do not also go up in flames.

When the party held its spring rally in the city in February, the Reform leader was billed as the ‘prime minister in waiting’. Some remarked it a little presumptuous when Mr Farage announced his ‘shadow cabinet’ - a title which is reserved for the official opposition - and a few eyebrows were raised when daytime television presenter Jeremy Kyle, most normally associated with mediating in dysfunctional families, emerged as the compere. But with the party a steady nine points ahead in the opinion polls, and a second ‘turquoise tsunami’ in the local elections just three months away, surely a bit of hubris could be excused?

Leader Nigel Farage using a tee shirt cannon during a rally for Reform UK party at the NEC Birmingham

placeholder image — Leader Nigel Farage using a tee shirt cannon during a rally for Reform UK party at the NEC Birmingham

But, as the party goes into the event which should have been a celebration of Reform’s stunning electoral successes of the past year, there are signs of a growing nervousness among the turquoise army.

On paper, the party is stronger than it has ever been, probably nowhere more so than here in the heart of the country. Today the party holds more than 2,300 seats in local government, and controls 24 councils. Spectacular results in May’s local elections saw Reform end Labour’s 47-year stranglehold in Sandwell, not to mention bringing a brutal end to veteran Tory Mike Bird’s dominance of political life in Walsall. Electoral arithmetic meant it was not possible for Reform to take control of Dudley or Wolverhampton councils, but the gains made suggested it might only be a matter of time.

Nigel Farage was engulfed in flames as he closed he Reform UK’s rally in Birmingham in February | PA

But a difficult summer, which began with mounting pressure over Christopher Harborne’s £5 million ‘gift’ to Mr Farage, and continued with the miscalculation of the by-election, which ended up seeing the ‘prime-minister-in-waiting’ having to stave off a challenge from a dustbin, have knocked some of the swagger out of the Reform campaign. Mr Farage, who built his career on being at ease with the media, has appeared notably tetchy of late - including the speech where he announced his plan to call a by-election, where he railed against the ‘mainstream media’.

Will Nigel Farage have the last laugh? | PA

There were signs of this growing antipathy in the run-up to the local elections, when Reform chairman Lee Anderson told council candidates in Sandwell not to speak to the media - unaware that he was being filmed by the Express & Star, which had been invited to cover the event. It has not helped that the opening of this year’s conference has been somewhat overshadowed by the news that high-profile journalists Anna Isaac, Peter Geoghegan and Michael Crick had all been banned from attending.

This has coincided with the inevitable ‘Burnham bounce’ which has benefited Labour, while Kemi Badenoch has also seen a quiet growth in her personal approval rating, even if that is yet to manifest itself in her party’s electoral fortunes. A new poll this week puts Reform in third place, behind both Labour and the Tories. Is this just a bump in the road, or the first sign that Reform will fade away just like the SDP/Liberal Alliance did, some 40 years ago?

Maybe the best thing Mr Farage could do is take a deep breath, and reflect on just how far his party has come.

There is no doubt that the intensity of scrutiny that Reform has faced in recent months has come as something of a rude awakening to some in the party’s high command, and diehard supporters will no doubt say they are subject to an ‘establishment stitch-up’. But wiser heads should remind them that this goes with the territory of being seen as a potential party of government, and embrace the attention.

As any seasoned politician will tell you, the time to worry is when the hard questions stop. Because that is when you are not being taken seriously.