Should I be worried about rising COVID-19 infections in the UK?

In response to the NHS Confederation urging the Government to implement Plan B in response to Covid-19 cases, University of Birmingham’s Professor Paul Moss has analysed the latest data.

Plan B entails the Government introducing measures, such as mandatory face coverings in crowded and enclosed spaces, without delay.

The NHS Confederation is warning that the extent of this recovery could be at risk without preemptive action over winter.

Prof Moss, from the university’s Institute of Immunology and Immunotherapy, said the death rate is still under control - but outlines that there is some cause for concern.

He says that pressure on hospitals still needs to be considered, especially with people being re-infected with coronavirus.

He outlines that there is a way to deal with this however.

What are the current Covid-19 rates in Birmingham?

The rate of infection in Birmingham was higher than the England average, according to Government figures released on Tuesday October 19.

Those figures from the UK coronavirus daily dashboard showed a total of 167,708 people had been confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19 in Birmingham.

The rate of infection in Birmingham now stands at 14,705 cases per 100,000 people - higher than the England average of 12,843.

The dashboard shows 2,956 people had died in the area by October 19 (Tuesday) – up from 2,951 on Monday.

It means there have been 20 deaths in the past week, which is a decrease on 21 the previous week.

They were among 14,598 deaths recorded across the West Midlands.

What Prof Moss said about rising Covid-19 cases

Prof Moss said: “It is disappointing that we are seeing higher rates of infection over the last week or two, although on the whole the death rate is relatively well-controlled.

“I am, however, concerned about the pressure on hospitals and the risk particularly to people who are immunosuppressed or immunocompromised.

“There are two factors at play here - the virus and the host. The Delta virus, which is the globally dominant variant, is very infectious and more than twice as contagious as the original Wuhan virus, while we, as the host, have changed our behaviour somewhat and we are interacting much more as a society.”

What Prof Moss said about minimising the risks from the rising Covid-19 cases

“We also have to think about potential vaccine and immunity waning. It’s about one year since we had the vaccine, and it’s time to reappraise what they have achieved. 

“The vaccine programme has been phenomenal, and the number of deaths and hospitalisations they have prevented is remarkable.   What we are seeing now, though, is that antibody levels that developed after the second vaccine are beginning to wane and this is leading to an increase in breakthrough of infections.

“What is relatively reassuring is protection against very severe illness and death remains very high at 90%, so that’s encouraging. However, none of the vaccines are providing what we call ‘sterilising immunity’ and we are seeing people being re-infected with this coronavirus. That is something we will have to live with and why a third booster is vitally important.”

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