Plummeting birth rate leads to hundreds of surplus reception places in Solihull

The rate has fallen by 12 per cent in five years, according to a Solihull Council document, with a forecast compiled earlier this year forecasting a total of 239 reception places – nine per cent of capacity – were empty at the start of the 2024/25 year in September.

The authority’s three-year school places plan warned class places would need to be reduced in response to the issue.

Data from January 2024, including pupil census, health data, admissions and recent demographic changes, was used to forecast the number of pupils for the rest of the decade. 

In the plan council officers said: “The birth rate in Solihull has fallen by 12 per cent over the last five years and this is now impacting on primary school reception intakes.

“Forecasts indicate by September 2024 there will be 239 (nine per cent) empty reception places in our primary schools.

“This level of surplus reception places will continue to increase unless steps are taken, in partnership with schools, to reduce the level of reception places over coming years.”

Ann Pearson, the authority’s team leader for school place planning, called it a “key challenge” impacting primary schools. 

She said the council would work with schools on how to address the “redesignation” of primary school space over the next two to three years. 

“There are a number of priorities – special educational needs being one of them – a range of programmes where we might be able to work with our primary schools to look at how we make best use of that resource in schools where vacancies occur,” the officer said.

“That has a number of benefits for schools and the local authority.”

But more people moving to Solihull has led to the use of “bulge classes” at higher age groups at primary schools, and this is forecast to move through into secondary schools.

The officer’s report said: “The increase in in-year admissions at Key Stage 2 will now see Year 7 intakes peak in September 2027.

“To meet this increase in demand a rolling programme of additional Year 7 bulge classes have been agreed with five secondary schools and will operate until the September 2027 peak.”

The report said planned new housing at sites around the borough would lead to a potential need for four new primary schools and the permanent expansion of at least one secondary school to cope.  

Coun Karen Grinsell, deputy leader of the council and lead member for children and education, said although it was a three-year plan it was more for one year because of the way things have been “evolving and changing”. 

“It’s a plan but it is probably a little bit more a statement of where we are and what we know at this point,” she added.

Solihull’s birthrate reflects national figures as the Office for National Statistics showed 591,072 babies were born in 2023 – fewer than in any year since 1977.

That had followed a lower than usual birthrate during the pandemic.