Amber weather warning for Birmingham: How long the August 2022 heatwave will last, according to the Met Office

An amber weather warning has been issued in Birmingham for extreme heat as one of the hottest summers on record continues to take hold. The heat is rising and the Met Office expects the sweltering weather to stick around. The city is expected to maintain levels of heat way above the seasonal average, just weeks after the mercury hit an all-time high.

The record for the hottest ever temperature in Birmingham was smashed on July 19 2022 as stations in the city recorded 38°C for the first time in history. These extremes won’t quite be met again this week, but the Met Office predicts the heatwave threshold to be broken in Birmingham once again and this time for longer.

Here’s everything you need to know, including the exact dates the heatwave will hit Birmingham, how long it will last, and how a heatwave is officially recorded.

What is the weather forecast for Birmingham this week?

The Met Office predicts a very hot, dry and sunny week ahead in Birmingham, with maximum temperatures in the high twenties and low thirties. No rain is expected and cloud cover will be rare as the sun is set to beat down on Brummies for at least the next 6-7 days.

An amber warning for extreme heat has been issued for an astonishing four-day period, from Thursday 11 August to Sunday 14 August, with the mercury set to hit the low thirites consistently.

High pressure and warm air pushing up from the south are responsible for the sweltering conditions with little sign of things turning any cooler. It’s advised that you apply sun cream and stay in the shade where possible as UV levels will be high.

As the heatwave threshold in the West Midlands is around 30°C, the exact date the heatwave will begin is Thursday as 30°C is indeed forecast for that day. The maximum temperature is set to remain above the threshold for four days in total, including Friday, Saturday and Sunday – a very hot weekend for all in Birmingham.

Seven-day weather forecast for Birmingham:

• Tuesday 9 August: Sunny (28°C/18°C)
• Wednesday 10 August: Sunny (29°C/18°C)
• Thursday 11 August: Sunny (30°C/17°C)
• Friday 12 August: Sunny (30°C/17°C)
• Saturday 13 August: Sunny (31C/18°C)
• Sunday 14 August: Sunny spells, with a 30% chance of rain showers (30°C/18°C)
• Monday 15 August: Sunny spells, with a 40% chance of rain showers (25°C/16°C)

What constitutes a heatwave?

According to the Met Office, a UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold. The threshold varies by UK county.

The threshold in the West Midlands is 30°C by day and 15°C by night. As much of the ‘very warm’ and ‘hot’ weather the Met Office is predicting will be towards the end of this week is expected to exceed these temperatures, Birmingham is set for its second officially classified heatwave of 2022.

When will the heatwave in Birmingham end?

There are currently no signs in the short-term for the hot weather to end, with the Met Office’s weather forecast for next week showing a continuation of hot weather, particularly in southern and central areas of England.

It won’t be as hot in Birmingham as it is further south - such as in London and the southeast - but there’s no sign of the sweltering heat going away any time soon. With 30°C or above forecast from Thursday 11 August to Sunday 14 August, this is set to be the period the heatwave remains in force.

It’s likely to cool down a little on Monday 15 August, though, with 25°C forecasted. If the maximum temperature does indeed head below 30°C as expected, this will be the end of the heatwave threshold being met.

What has the Met Office said about the weather for the rest of August?

Below is what the Met Office has predicted for the UK weather forecast from the period Friday 12 August to Sunday 21 August – they predict dry, hot weather to dominate.

The Met Office said: “The start of the period will likely be fine and sunny for most. Cloud and outbreaks of light rain may be seen in the far northwest on Friday, along with possible coastal mist or fog.

“Winds are expected to be mostly light and temperatures above average, becoming warm in the north and hot in the south. Into the weekend and through next week, mainly dry and settled weather will likely continue for most.

“The north is expected to see the most of any precipitation, but there is also a low risk of thunderstorms developing in the south. Temperatures will likely be very warm, locally hot for much of England and Wales, especially across the southern parts, but closer to normal while still warm elsewhere.”

The Met Office has also laid out a forecast for the remainder of the month and the start of next, from Monday 22 to Monday 5 September, and they expect the hot conditions to eventually disappear for many.

The Met Office said: “The second half of August may bring a shift away from the earlier settled conditions for many, with occasional periods of unsettled weather over the northern and western parts, and increased chances of thunderstorms in the south.

“Temperatures will trend between average and warm for most, and likely warm or very warm in the south, where it will also turn humid at times. Further into the period, the unsettled conditions may spread further south and east at times, although the north and west are still likely to see the most of any precipitation.”