Excess deaths: Midlands & North hardest hit by winter deaths spike

Significantly more excess deaths are currently being recorded in the Midlands compared to other areas of England, with pressure on the NHS “likely” to be a factor.

At any given time of year there will be a ‘usual’ or expected number of deaths – excess deaths means numbers above this level.

Now our analysis, which is based on weekly death data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), has revealed in the four weeks to 30 December, deaths in the Midlands were up by 18.9% compared to the pre-pandemic average. The North saw the highest increase during this time, with deaths up by 20.6%.

What exactly do the figures show?

In the South deaths were up by just 14.7%. The gap is even wider if London is excluded, with deaths up by only 14.3% for the rest of the South. The data shows a clear disparity between the South of England compared to the Midlands and the North.

Two weeks ago, in the week ending 23 December, the northern regions recording the sharpest increase in deaths. But in the week ending 30 December it was the Midlands that surged forward with a staggering 27% additional deaths compared to pre-pandemic. That compared to 20.6% in the North and 15.5% in the South.

In the week ending December 30, the East Midlands recorded 30.7% additional deaths compared to pre-pandemic - the highest amount in the country, and the West Midlands had a 23.6% spike in deaths - the third highest rate out of the regions in England.

The data shows a clear north-south divide across England, with figures released yesterday (10 January) showing the number of additional deaths is a third higher in midlands and northern regions compared to southern.

The disparity between the Midlands and the North compared to the South was also evident over the last eight weeks, covering back to the week ending 11 November, with deaths in the North up by 16.7% compared to 12.1% in the South and 15.3% in the Midlands.

The difference is the equivalent of an extra 1,107 northerners and 499 midlanders dying over the last eight weeks, compared to the number that would have died if excess mortality was at the level seen in the south.

While the official measure of excess mortality used by the ONS in its national statistics compares deaths in 2022 to the average in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, the publishers of Birmingham World has chosen to use the pre-pandemic average (2015 to 2019) to avoid any distortion caused by the disproportionate impact of Covid deaths in northern regions.

The ONS does not publish its own comparisons at a regional level, and said it could not comment on the trend Birmingham World uncovered.